Steady housing market the goal for 2010
Derek Kilbourn
derek@soundernews.com
Monday, February 8 2010
“Steady as she goes” is the theme looked for in the Gabriola housing market for 2010, according to Jennifer Lynch, Manager, Coast Realty Group, Gabriola Village Ltd.
Jennifer spoke in late January, comparing the bumpy ride that was 2008 to the steady and solid year seen in 2009, saying the 2009 trend should continue into 2010.
She clarified that the statistics she used to demonstrate the state of the housing market, do not include waterfront or acreages so the statistical sample, “is a relatively small sample, because the island only has so many sales a year. So it can easily be skewed if you use things like average sales prices.”
As of January, there were only 75 active listings. Jennifer said that on average Coast is running between 90 and 120.
Looking at the 2008 sales, the dive in the market took place in May and June, rather than in October like the rest of Canada.
Jennifer said, “June 2008 is when the boom sort of seemed to have ended and it continued through to February of last year. Last year was much better. 2008 was basically a six-month year.
“The average sale price, has actually gone up from $283K to $304K in 2009. I don’t think that prices have increased that much. I think that’s an indicator of what’s been selling.”
As to why things have now improved in the market, Jennifer said, “More consumer confidence, low interest rates, a five-year rate right now is 3.89 percent, so there is more consumer confidence. The economy is a little bit stronger than it was back then. The media portrayal of things absolutely impacted the real estate market.
“Consumer confidence is huge, it can kill the market if there is a lack of it.
“I would say we haven’t seen any major price increases since 2008. But the sales are phenomenal. It feels like a stronger market. The amount of inquiries we’re getting. December 2008/January 2009, there were two sales on Gabriola in those months; December 2009 was phenomenal.
“The whole month of December [2009], there was a ton of activity. So that’s more promising. In 2008 there weren’t the amount of calls or inquiries and properties weren’t there. That’s not how it is this year.”
Jennifer explained she believes the way the prices have gone in the last couple years, Gabriola is looking at more full-time residents and lots of young families moving to the island.
“Which is huge, especially when you look at the other gulf islands and the trends there.
“We market by the number of kids enrolled in school, when we see that dropping, it means you are losing young families on the island. But our school is still healthy.”
Prediction for 2010?
“I think this year will be another solid year in sales. Likely if we see any increases they will be marginal, increases in volume or price. I don’t see anything drastic.
“It’s hard for sellers’ expectations to re-align. For so many years we had the 15, 20 percent increases per year and that was sort of the expectation. It wasn’t sustainable forever.”
As to affordable housing, Jennifer said, “It’s an issue throughout the province right now. I can’t see a quick solution. Density, in some shape or form, is the only thing. You can’t change how much it costs to build.
How to improve selling a home?
Jennifer said, “I think staging the house for showings. Not necessarily with the services of a professional stager, but making sure the house is presentable at all times. That’s the key to anything. You walk in, it feels good.”
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